SEMA Week — and the MSO Symposium in particular — is the closest thing our industry has to a live sentiment check. It’s one of the only weeks each year when the most influential operators, consolidators, suppliers, and investors speak plainly about what’s actually happening across their markets. For firms like ours, it’s a rare chance to listen, compare notes, and gauge where the collision repair landscape is really heading.
This year’s conversations revealed five clear trends that will shape valuations, deal timing, and strategic decisions in 2026. From forward-looking strategic decisions by strong operators, to accelerating private-equity interest, to a widening performance gap, the signals were louder and more aligned than we’ve seen in years. Below is our breakdown of what stood out — and why it matters for owners planning ahead.
Here’s what rose to the top:
Nearly everyone is optimistic about their growth in 2026. Operators across markets told us they expect a strong year ahead for their businesses, backed by the effort they made in 2025 to secure additional sources of revenue, improve margins, and invest in more training across the board. Yes, the MSO owners who attend SEMA tend to outperform the broader industry — but even accounting for that bias, the confidence was unusually consistent. At the same time, the conversations made one point clear: the operators who stand to gain the most in 2026 aren’t simply “optimistic” — they’re the ones already investing in their technology, operational capabilities, and people. Their momentum comes from preparation and investment, not sentiment, and that distinction matters for both operators and prospective sellers heading into 2026.
Investment interest in collision repair — especially from private equity — remains exceptionally strong. We expect at least one new PE firm to make a platform acquisition and enter collision repair in the first quarter of 2026. That follows a record number of inbound inquiries to Focus Advisors in 2025. Given the year’s industry headwinds, the fact that investor momentum is not only holding but accelerating is a notable signal: capital continues to view collision repair as one of the most durable, scalable service sectors in the aftermarket.
Consolidators and their PE sponsors are setting ambitious — in some cases record — growth targets for 2026. Our MSO Symposium presentation showed an aggregate slowdown, but that picture was skewed by Caliber and Crash Champions, both of which pulled back meaningfully this year. Classic and Gerber, meanwhile, maintained their pace and anticipate stepping up activity. And nearly every buyer in the next tier below told us they have aggressive acquisition goals in the year ahead. The headline: consolidation isn’t slowing — it’s reshuffling.
High-performing MSOs are concentrating their resources on two priorities: winning the keys and diversifying revenue. Owners are increasing their marketing spend to capture more first-choice work from carriers and customers, while simultaneously pulling sublet services in-house. Mechanical, glass, ADAS, and even the rental fleet are moving under the same roof — a shift aimed at improving margins, controlling cycle time, and strengthening customer relationships.
Deals are harder to close — and fewer are making it to the finish line. Buyers told us that many of the opportunities they evaluated in 2025 simply weren’t the top-performing businesses, prompting tighter deal scrutiny, more deal risk, and financial reviews that couldn’t justify initial valuations or seller expectations. Some operators did sell in 2025, but most of the highest performers held back. In fact, many of those best-run MSOs view the slowdown as a chance to invest, strengthen their advantage, and widen the gap before they consider exiting in 2026. The challenging deal environment—marked by wider negotiation gaps—has driven a rise in creatively-structured transactions, including the use of earnouts.
Taken together, these themes paint a clear picture: 2026 is shaping up to be a year of opportunity for the operators investing ahead of the curve, continued capital inflows, and a widening separation between those building long-term capabilities and those simply managing the slowdown. For MSO owners, the next 6–12 months will present a rare window to strengthen the business — or to exit into a market where high performance truly earns a premium.
If you’re considering growth, recapitalization, or a potential sale in 2026, the right time to plan is now. Speak with the team at Focus Advisors to understand how these market signals translate into valuation, timing, and strategy for your business.
Banking Services and Securities offered through Independent Investment Bankers Corp, a broker-dealer, member FINRA, SIPC. Focus Advisors Automotive M&A is not affiliated with Independent Investment Bankers Corp.
